Eight-Game Win Streaks
There has been a lot of talk about win streaks this year, with multiple teams having impressive stretches of successive wins. Port Adelaide won 13 in a row, GWS won seven in a row, and Carlton have currently won nine in a row (including yesterday’s victory over the Gold Coast). On the back of this, one of my friends asked about how teams that had won eight or more games in a row during the home and away season had gone in the context of the overall season, and in their words, “whether the norm is [making] the grand final”.
Let’s find out.
There have been 165 occasions where a team has had eight or more consecutive wins during the home and away season since the inception of the V/AFL, including Carlton, Collingwood, and Port Adelaide this season. A full list of these occasions, and how the team went that year (i.e., whether they won the flag, etc.) can be found here.
Some rapid-fire stats from the whole list:
- Collingwood had two separate streaks of winning eight or more games in the 1970 season
- Sixty-four of the 161 teams to win eight- or more game in a row (39.8%) were premiers that year
- Only six of the 161 teams with an eight- or more-game win streak failed to make finals
- The Brisbane Bears and University never had an eight-game win streak during their existence, while Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney are yet to experience an eight-game win streak
It’s somewhat challenging to make fair comparisons over how an eight-game win streak during the regular season translates to finals success given the V/AFL has used 12 different finals systems during their history. So, to try and make things “fair”, or “consistent”, I’ll focus on data from 2000 onwards, which uses the AFL final eight system.
Since 2000 (and including 2023), there have been 45 occasions where a team has won eight or more consecutive games. Prior to this year, every team on this list played finals. The average ladder position for these teams was 2.5, with 17 of these 45 teams finishing on top. This is the most common final ladder position for a team with an eight- or more-game win streak. Interestingly, a team has never won eight or more games in a row and finished seventh.
Figure: Frequency of final ladder position by teams with eight-plus game win streaks, 2000-2022
But onto the important stuff. The table below breaks down the outcome for the 42 teams with completed seasons.
Table: Season outcomes for teams with eight-plus game win streaks, 2000-2022
| Outcome | Frequency |
|---|---|
| Elimination Final | 3 |
| Semi Final | 5 |
| Preliminary Final | 14 |
| Grand Finalist | 6 |
| Premier | 14 |
So, it turns out teams with eight-plus game win streaks during the regular season either fall at the preliminary final stage or go on to win the whole thing. I’ll be ecstatic if Carlton make a prelim (or the grand final), but I think Collingwood or Port Adelaide making it to the later stages of September are more likely (especially when you consider ladder position, see below). No team with an eight-plus game win streak that finishes outside the top four has made it to the grand final, let alone won it.
Elimination Final
- Richmond in 2014, after finishing eighth on the ladder (nine-game win streak; the infamous ‘kicking into the wind’ final)
- North Melbourne in 2016, after finishing eighth on the ladder (nine-game win streak)
- West Coast in 2020, after finishing fifth on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
Semi Final
- Fremantle in 2014, after finishing fourth on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- Adelaide in 2016, after finishing fifth on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- Hawthorn in 2016, after finishing third on the ladder (nine-game win streak)
- Brisbane in 2019, after finishing second on the ladder (nine-game win streak)
- Melbourne in 2022, after finishing second on the ladder (ten-game win streak)
Preliminary Final
- Carlton in 2000, after finishing second on the ladder (13-game win streak)
- Hawthorn in 2001, after finishing sixth on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- Port Adelaide in 2002, after finishing first on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- Port Adelaide in 2003, after finishing first on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- St Kilda in 2004, after finishing third on the ladder (ten-game win streak)
- Adelaide in 2005, after finishing first on the ladder (ten-game win streak)
- Adelaide in 2006, after finishing second on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- Fremantle in 2006, after finishing third on the ladder (nine-game win streak)
- Hawthorn in 2011, after finishing third on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- Collingwood in 2012, after finishing fourth on the ladder (ten-game win streak)
- Port Adelaide in 2014, after finishing fifth on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- Fremantle in 2015, after finishing first on the ladder (nine-game win streak)
- Geelong in 2019, after finishing first on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- Collingwood in 2022, after finishing fourth on the ladder (11-game win streak)
Grand Finalist
- West Coast in 2005, after finishing second on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- Geelong in 2008, after finishing first on the ladder (13-game win streak)
- St Kilda in 2009, after finishing first on the ladder (19-game win streak)
- Collingwood in 2011, after finishing first on the ladder (14-game win streak)
- Hawthorn in 2012, after finishing first on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- Sydney in 2014, after finishing first on the ladder (12-game win streak)
Premier
- Essendon in 2000, after finishing first on the ladder (20-game win streak)
- Brisbane in 2001, after finishing first on the ladder (13-game win streak)
- Geelong in 2007, after finishing first on the ladder (15-game win streak)
- Hawthorn in 2008, after finishing second on the ladder (nine-game win streak)
- Geelong in 2009, after finishing second on the ladder (13-game win streak)
- Collingwood in 2010, after finishing first on the ladder (nine-game win streak)
- Geelong in 2011, after finishing second on the ladder (13-game win streak)
- Sydney in 2012, after finishing third on the ladder (nine-game win streak)
- Hawthorn in 2013, after finishing first on the ladder (12-game win streak)
- Hawthorn in 2015, after finishing third on the ladder (eight-game win streak)
- West Coast in 2018, after finishing second on the ladder (ten-game win streak)
- Richmond in 2019, after finishing third on the ladder (nine-game win streak)
- Melbourne in 2021, after finishing first on the ladder (nine-game win streak)
- Geelong in 2022, after finishing first on the ladder (13-game win streak)
As always, apologies to anyone who has already looked at this stat!